Decision Markets

Decision Markets

GENYS works across explicit markets like Polymarket and applied markets like pricing experiments, campaign launches, and product bets. The calibration system is the same in both cases.

Explicit Prediction Markets

Polymarket, Kalshi, Metaculus

Prediction markets produce prices that represent the crowd's probability estimate for a specific outcome. These prices are backed by real money, which makes them one of the strongest probability signals available.

GENYS integrates with Polymarket via the official CLOB SDK. When you link a Polymarket market to a decision, GENYS records the market price at entry and at resolution, then computes the market's prediction error alongside yours.

This creates relative calibration: you can see whether you are more or less accurate than the market on the same outcomes.

Applied Prediction Markets

Every business decision is a probabilistic claim

Most business decisions are predictions that are never treated as such:

GENYS treats these the same way it treats explicit market predictions. Attach a probability. Track the outcome. Score the accuracy. Over time, you learn which teams, channels, and strategies you forecast well and which ones you consistently get wrong.

GENYS as the Calibration Layer

Markets produce prices. GENYS measures accuracy.

Prediction markets are a source of probabilities. GENYS is the system that records them, compares them against other sources, resolves them against outcomes, and computes calibration. Polymarket tells you what the crowd thinks. GENYS tells you whether the crowd — or you, or your AI model — was actually right.

Deployment

Personal and organizational forecasting

Cross-Source Comparison

Same outcome, different sources, measured equally