Every
prediction
must face
reality.
Every claim is recordedEvery outcome is trackedEvery prediction is scored
The same calibration loop applies across every domain.
Will ETH break $4,000 by March 31?
You
65pp
overconfident
GPT-4o
72pp
overconfident
Claude
61pp
overconfident
Polymarket
68pp
overconfident
Your Brier score on crypto predictions moved from 0.21 to 0.24. You overestimate in the 60–70% range by 13pp.
Track probabilistic decisions from humans, AI models, and markets. Resolve against outcomes. Measure calibration over time.
Human Forecasts
Domain expertise, intuition, context
No structured tracking, no calibration feedback
Every estimate is recorded, scored, and compared
AI Model Outputs
Fast probabilistic reasoning
No accountability, no accuracy measurement over time
Model predictions tracked and calibrated like human ones
Market Signals
Price discovery with real stakes
External to your decision workflow
Market probabilities ingested as reference signals
Operational Forecasts
Applied predictions with business impact
Treated as plans, not probabilistic claims
Every launch, budget shift, and bet becomes a tracked prediction
Calibration Layer
Structured resolution, bias detection, scoring
—
All sources measured against reality over time
GENYS is the calibration layer above all prediction sources.
It records probabilistic claims from humans, AI models, markets, and operational systems—resolves them against outcomes—and measures who was right, by how much, and where bias exists.
Three-layer calibration architecture: signals in, governance applied, outcomes scored
Coverage
Anywhere a probability is stated, implied, or allocated as capital, GENYS can record it, resolve it, and score it. Advertising budgets are predictions. Market prices are predictions. Model outputs are predictions. GENYS measures them all.
Market Signals
Prediction Markets
Explicit probabilistic claims with real capital at stake
Advertising & Media Systems
Model-driven capital allocation where budgets are deployed based on probabilistic forecasts and resolved against real performance
Sports & Wagering
Odds and lines as implied probabilities across sports and events
Financial & Macro
Options pricing, volatility surfaces, and yield curves as implied probabilities
Behavioral Signals
AI / Model Outputs
Model confidence scores and predictions as testable probabilistic claims
Institutional Signals
Internal Decisions
Strategy, pricing, product, and GTM bets treated as forecasts with required probabilities
Every advertising budget, market price, model confidence score, and team estimate is a probabilistic claim. GENYS records them, resolves them against reality, and measures who was right.
Who Needs GENYS
Forecasters & Traders
Making probabilistic predictions on markets, politics, crypto, or macro events
→ Structured tracking with calibration feedback and bias detection
GTM & Strategy Teams
Launching campaigns, testing pricing, placing channel bets
→ Every launch treated as a prediction, measured against actual outcomes
AI & Operations Teams
Running models, agents, and automated decision workflows
→ Multi-agent calibration: which model is most accurate, and where
Executives & Investors
Making high-stakes decisions on incomplete information
→ Visible forecasting record with governance thresholds before execution
Humans predict. Models estimate. Markets price. GENYS scores them all—so you know exactly where you are wrong, by how much, and how to improve.
Brier scores, directional bias, and confidence bucket analysis computed on every resolution. Rolling and lifetime views show whether accuracy is improving or degrading.
Detects overconfidence and underconfidence by category, confidence range, and time period. Surfaces diagnostics before each new prediction.
Full lineage from claim to probability to outcome. Every resolution is locked, timestamped, and immutable. No selective deletion.
Outcomes are locked on resolution. Overdue decisions penalize calibration. No manipulation vectors.
Track user, AI model, and market predictions on the same decision. Compare error rates across sources.
Every prediction traces to its source, probability, governance state, and resolution. Queryable and auditable.